11/11/14 was up again. This time it was only up +$0.16. The model projects that the CME Lean Hog Index component on the 11/11/14 kill will fall in the range of +0.15 and -0.15. A lot will depend on the batch of hogs packers decided to process yesterday. They have some cheaper hogs purchased and some more expensive. The model does its best to second guess what the packers will do.

Generally it does quite well.

With the Purchase Index having turned, cutouts being firm and seemingly producers have liquidated a bunch of heavies and become current in their shipments, it appears to me it might be time to shed that bear skin coat. I'm scalping from the long side today.

So far, so good.

The spreads treated me well yesterday so I'm not expecting much from them today. They will be quiet for a while and then something spooks them and there is all sorts of activity.

Best wishes,

dhm