5/10/19 was UP +0.64 and the model projects the component on Friday's kill will jump between +0.10 and +0.40.

Packers sweetened their bids in the afternoon and by the end of the day they had purchased 113.5% of the moving average daily purchases of total hogs and 97.7% on the index hogs. Retailers are now filling their cases for the Memorial Day grilling and the low kill last week may be an early hint that the supply of hogs is now beginning to show the usual summer supply reduction. Even if the supply tightens, productions is probably greater than domestic demand will carry off so exports are needed to nudge the price up.

I continue to believe we are in the chase looking for the next "Crest" to this Hog Cycle and there is a good chance that it will be driven by a hog disease epidemic just as the last one was only this time the disease is in China rather than the U.S. Potentially that is a much more bullish scenario. The last Hog Cycle topped out with the CME Lean Hog Index hitting 134.17 on 7/16/14. The possibility exists for this Hog Cycle "Crest" to match the last one so I bought an August-20 future this morning at 88.525 and will HODL it looking for the 130+ level. I may be in for a mighty bumpy ride so I will pull my Stetson down over my ears and HOLD ON FOR DEAR LIFE.

Best wishes,

Doc