5/2/19 was down -0.15 to 82.95. The MMMs are now trading premium to the component by +9.60. Packers shipped 41.4% of the kill on a 6-day moving average basis. On the kill yesterday, 48.84% were packer hogs. Packers are vertically integrating at a rapid clip or at least that is what I think the data is saying.

The 6-day moving average carcass weight was steady at 215.60#. That is +0.96# yr/yr. Packer hogs were heavier than non-packer hogs by +3.70#.

The summer 2020 futures are trading 93 to 94. We are currently in the chase looking for the next hog cycle "High". The last one was almost 135 as a result of an infection depleted inventory in the U.S. If the next "High" is triggered by the ASF disease in China, it could match the last high. That would be a gain of forty or so points. So one future bought and held could return something in the range of $16,000 with an initial margin of about $2,000 that is a potential return of 800% in 18 months or so. Not bad!

"Figures don't lie but liars will figure!"

Best wishes,

Doc