5/1/19 was down -0.27 to 83.1. The MMMs settled premium to the component by +9.65. The cutouts were up 1.93. That was a big help to packers. Packers, as well as those of us who are bullish, needed that.

The six-day moving average carcass weight firmed to 215.53#. That is +1.01# yr/yr. Packer hogs are heavier than non-packer hogs by 3.64#. Index hogs were a bit heavier at 214.08#. This may be telling us that producers of Index hogs have been quite current in their shipments but they may not be keeping up with the way their hogs are now finishing. Packers continue to have more hogs than one year ago and they are finishing them to heavier weights.

The futures market continues have the seasonality high projected to come about the time that the QQQs expire at 96.275. I doubt that will be the Hog Cycle High. I am expecting it to be quite a bit higher perhaps equaling the last "Crest" at perhaps the 130 to 135 level. My view is not shared by "The Market" which has the next seasonality high to come in June 2020 and be around 93.00. It just might be that the next Hog Cycle "Crest" will be pushed back to 2021. If the losses in China are as severe as reported and world commerce goes forward without a lot of political interference, there is quite an opportunity to get long the far out contracts and just HODL them until you turn blue.

Best wishes,

Doc

"In the hog market, you can ALWAYS expect the unexpected!!" Long Bear