MURICO.com Forum

Hogs by Dennis Smith

Goof morning DH, I did not get very far north of Tucson last week or I would have looked you up. I also had a hard time getting around Tucson without the GPS directing me!

Yesterday was the first time I had not bought some hogs for some time as I have been using the weakness in hogs as a buying opportunity. I have bought some more this morning to round out my number however, I probably will hold at this amount for awhile. Following are Dennis's morning comments

Cash is called steady to lower as packers grumble about lost margins. Weekly pork export sales were 16,100 MT, down 59% from the 4-week average. Mexico was our largest buyer with China not in the market last week. However, shipments were good, at 26,400 MT, they were up 11% from last week and up 2% from the 4-week average. We shipped 6,800 MT to Mexico and 4,400 MT to China. Shipments are more important than the sale figures as sales commitments are already huge. Its large increases in shipments, going into the summer months that will tighten supplies dramatically. In the wake of the trade negotiations in Beijing the market quickly concluded that Chinese tariffs on U.S. pork will disappear rather quickly. This was the driving force yesterday and will continue to support the market today. Overnight China banned Canadian pork shipments from two firms. Canada is learning that you dont tick-off the big dog without paying a dear price. This is not a big deal for the market. As Canadian pork eases down Mexico will step in. They can purchase Canadian pork tariff free versus a 25% tariff on U.S. pork. Were on expanded limits today. Volume yesterday was 65,800 and open interest increased by nearly 2,800. Look for upside follow through today.

Dewey