MURICO.com Forum

The 6-day moving average carcass weight - - -

firmed to 213.85#. That's 10.03# heavier this year than it was last year on this date. Packer hogs gained somewhat more than non-packer hogs. Perhaps this means that packers are feeling a bit less demand pressure so they are comfortable in letting a few more of their hogs grow out a little longer to meet the impending decline in the availability of market-ready hogs. The data suggests to me that over the past several weeks, packers have pulled their hogs forward quite a bit to meet their slaughter needs.

The swine scheduled for delivery report shows that packers have nearly 2.1 million hogs purchased. That is a fairly strong number compared to what we saw last week. Packers have been keeping their bids firm to bring in numbers like this however it appears that the rate at which packers are bidding higher is on the decline. That is consistent with what we generally see after the holiday demand surge subsides.

With the NNNs ending the day premium to the index by 2.52, I think there is a good chance that technical/emotional factors will cause the NNNs to drop a point or so between now and when the NNNs die. Based on that feeling, I want to hold a few short NNNs and will scalp the NNNs from the short side next week.

In closing, I would like to wish all of you a wonderful holiday weekend. May we ever cherish and protect this great nation that our founding fathers gave us!!

Best wishes,

dhm