5/1/19 was down -0.22 and the model projects the component on the 5/1/19 kill will change in the range of -0.30 to unchanged. The MMMs settled premium to the component by +7.06. With their lower bids, packers purchased 80.8% of the moving average daily purchases of total hogs and 96.9% on index hogs.

The 201 report was very late today but it did finally come out. The component was up 0.11 to 83.37.

The 6-day moving average carcass weight was steady at 215.33#. That is +0.85# yr/yr. Index hogs were a down a bit at 213.85#. Packer hogs were heavier than the non-packer hogs by 3.42#. Packer are continuing to ship a large percentage of the kill. It looks like the moving average of packer hogs in the kill mix is going to jump above 40%

Cutouts lost another -0.23 today. I don't know about you all, but I am ready for the Chinese to start taking some pork in exchange for all the stuff we are buying from them. Maybe things will change if Trump and Xi have a big Pow-Wow in June.

I never saw the limit move coming today. This is a mighty wild hog market but you probably noticed that already! It has enabled me to get K/M spreads on and off my boat at a fairly rapid clip.

Best wishes,

Doc

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