4/29/19 came in surprisingly strong up +0.02 to 83.28. That is not much of a gain but considering the projection was quite weak, it was a bit unexpected. The MMMs are now trading premium to the component by +5.02.

The six-day moving average carcass weight eased to 215.36#. That is +0.82# yr/yr. Packer hogs are now +3.10# heavier than the non-packer hogs and packers continue to ship about 40% of the daily kill. Packer may be getting more current in their shipments. I say that because the carcass weights of packer hogs dropped nearly a pound. That is quite a drop for a 6-day moving average. Non-packer hogs were also down nearly 1/4#.

This delayed "March wash-out" has inflicted a good bit of damage to my margin but I continue to HODL because we are in the chase looking for the seasonality high and the Hog Cycle Hi.
The futures market has the seasonality high prices to arrive in Mid-August and I think the Hog Cycle Hi will be summer 2020. I keep getting a few calendar spreads on and off my boat and scalp a few futures. This is cushioning the draw down a little but it will take a major rally to get me out of the woods.

Best wishes,

dhm . .