4/26/19 was down -0.45 to 83.26. The MMMs are now trading premium to the component by 5.06.

The six-day moving average carcass weight firmed to 215.91#. That is +0.80# yr/yr. Index hogs were steady at 214.29#. Packer hogs were heavier by about 1/5# and are now+3.80# heavier than the non-packer hogs. Currently Packers may not be killing hogs quite as fast as they are finishing. Packers are continuing to ship a high percentage of the kill at nearly 40%.

The Lean Hog Futures has the seasonality high priced to be hit in August at 93.75. I do not believe that will be the "Crest" to this Hog Cycle. My thoughts are that the Hog Cycle "Crest" will more probably occur the summer of 2020 and could match the last "Crest" in the range of 135. There are enough risks on the horizon to derail that "Crest". One significant risk is that the ASF virus hits North America. Another is that Kim and his Nukes draw us into a skirmish with China.

"In the hog market you can always expect the unexpected" Long Bear.

Best wishes,

Doc