4/24/19 was up +0.70 83.74. The MMMs are now trading premium to the component by +6.03. The model calculates that it will take an average daily gain of +0.17 to close that "Gap". On average over the past twelve years the Index has gained 8.27 from this date until the MMMs go to cash settlement. In 2010 the index fell by -5.46 and it gained +23.00 in 2017. What happens this year is probably going to be driven by the exports to China and that is a wild-card.

The 6-day moving average carcass weight firmed to 215.77#. That is +0.72# yr/yr. Index hogs are a bit lighter at 214.25#. Packer hogs are +3.68# heavier than the non-packer hogs. Packers are shipping higher than usual percentage of the kill and it may be that they are now liquidating some of their heavies.

Today is not a happy trading day for me. As Long Bear often said, "In the hog market you can always expect the unexpected!"

Best wishes,

Doc