4/23/19 was up +0.33 and the model projects the component on today's kill will move up between +0.20 and +0.50. The MMMs settled premium to the component by 9.99. The model calculates that the component will need to gain an average of +0.265 per day to close the "Gap". Over the last six days the component has been up an average of +0.45 per day.

With their higher bids today, packers purchased 98.7% of the moving average daily purchases of total hogs and 101.5% on the Index Hogs.

Cutouts sold well today being up +1.06 with almost all cuts being up. That was a help to packers' margins.

It appears to me that we are still in the chase looking for both the "Seasonality High" and the next "Hog Cycle High." The futures market seems to be saying that the "Seasonality High" will be hit around 8/15/19 and it will be in the 98 to 100 range. I continue to expect the Hog Cycle low to be hit 18 to 24 months from now and it could match the last Hog Cycle "Crest" in the 135 range.

But -

It is not going to be straight up. There will be an unusual amount of volatility as we search for the next Hog Cycle High. I have strategically decided to be long an array of deferred futures and Hold on For Dear Life. Yesterday it took a good bit of grit and determination to hold on.

Best wishes,

Doc