4/22/19 was up +0.51 to 82.39. The MMMs are now trading premium to the component b 9.78. The model now calculates that the component will need to gain an average of 0.27 per day to close the "Gap". Over the past 6-day the component has gained slightly more than 0.45/day. On average over the past seven years the index has gained +13.97 from this date until the MMMs go to cash settlement. This is the time of the year when the kill rate slows and the index tends to climb. And so we wait and watch to see how much the Index will gain his year and how much volatility there will be while it makes its move.

The 6-day moving average carcass weight fell to 215.55#. That is +0.41# yr/yr. Packer hogs are heavier than non-packer hogs by 4.18# Packer hogs were lighter today by -3/4#. Non Packer hogs were lighter by 1/3#. Index hogs were steady at 214.18#. The declining carcass weights may be confirming that hogs have been pulled forward a little and packers are having to bid a bit higher as they jockey to see who is going to kill what may be a declining number of hogs.

It appears that I made a mistake yesterday adding to the long hog futures. Lady Macbeth said to Macbeth, "What is done is done and cannot be un-done!" Well, I am not in a situation like Macbeth, I can undo my mistake but the fundamentals are so strong that I going to grit my teeth and bear the pain thinking that the dip in the hogs today is transient and recovery will come about. If I would have been brave like Dewey, I would have bought more but I will be patient and just HODL what I have and continue to work the calendar spreads.

Best wishes,

Doc