4/19/19 was up +0.87 and the model projects the component on Friday's kill will move up between +0.35 and +0.65. The MMMs are now trading premium to the component by +15.03. On average over the past four years the Index has gained 19.10 from this date until the MMMs go to cash settlement. This means that packers can and generally do close a "Gap" that large. We need to keep in mind, though, that we are working from a much higher index this year. Over the weekend when I looked at the afternoon reports, I thought the final Purchase Index would show another leg-up and it did! y

With their higher bids, packers only purchased 87.1% of the daily moving average purchases. Generally on a Friday it will be in the 120% range. We were contending with Friday being a holiday but packers were wanting the hogs and they were throwing money at them but they didn't get them. They were especially putting a lot of money on the negotiated hogs and here again they came up short. This morning I bought a June and an August. I have orders to buy more if the sell-off becomes more severe. I kicked three M/N spreads off the boat at my profit target and will replace them if there is a dip.

Best wishes,

Doc