4/16/19 was up +0.35 to 80.41. The KKKs are trading premium to the component by +8.51.

The 6-day moving average carcass weight firmed to 215.21#. That is +0.06# yr/yr. Index hogs were lighter at 213.79#. Packer hogs continue to be heavy at +4.74# over the non-packer hogs. Packer hogs continue to be a higher percentage of the kill than last year by a several percentage points. Lately it seems to have stabilized around the 38.5% level. One year ago it was running slightly less than 34%.

When the MMMs dipped this morning, I piled another one on my boat and I have now taken it to the bank. I had orders working for a limit down move but that didn't quite happen. This excess volatility has traders very jumpy. My heart goes out to the hedgers who are trying to guess which way to lean in this market. My bias continues to be that China is going to become a substantial customer for American pork. 1.3 billion people can gobble up a lot of pork and the Chinese people are accustomed to eating pork. If pork gets shipped to China as carcasses, there may be enough savings in the processing to partially off-set the tariff charge.

Best wishes,

Doc