The final Purchase Index for - - -

4/10/19 was the same as projected from the afternoon reports - up +0.16 and the model projects the component on yesterday's kill will be up between +0.15 to +0.45 keeping the uptrend in place.

When the day ended, packers purchased 86.7% of the moving average daily purchases of total hogs and 98.9% of the index hogs. I keep watching the data to see if there is confirmation that hogs have been pulled forward a little. The data seems to be consistent with the idea that hogs have been pulled forward by 300K head or so. With the carcass weights of the index hogs trailing other weight categories, it just might be that it is the Index hogs that have been pulled forward. If that turns out to be the case, when the supply of hogs tightens up as we move into the summer, packers may be scrambling to find that extra few hogs to fill their kill needs.

I am still long some JJJs to take to cash settlement and am HODLing long hogs in deferred contracts. I was expecting hogs to be firm today but the near-limit opening was more than I was expecting but welcomed, indeed.

Best wishes,