4/10/19 was up +0.16 and the model projects the component on the kill for 4/10/19 will be up between +0.15 nd +0.45 thus keeping the up-trend in place. If hogs are being pulled forward mildly as the numbers seem to suggest and if it turns out that it is the Index hogs that are coming forward, this up-trend may continue long enough to nudge the JJJs up a bit so I will continue to hold some long JJJs to take to cash settlement.
With their firmer bids, by the time the afternoon report was compiled, packers had purchased 82.0% of the moving daily purchases of total hogs and 93.5% on the index hogs.
There are two cycles at work in the the hog market: The Hog Cycle and the Seasonality Cycle. The "Trough"for both of these cycle was hit on 9/3/18 but it is doubtful that both "Crests" will be hit at the same time. The market is saying the seasonality "Crest" will be hit sometime between when the NNNs expire and when the QQQs expire. If we can keep the ASF out of North America and Trump and Xi come to terms, the Hog Cycle "Crest" will likely be a year or two later.
The "Trough" that follows may be brutal but it is probably years away.