4/8/19 was up +0.43 to 79.14. The JJJs are trading discount to the component by -0.32 and the MMMs are trading premium to the component by 16.23.

The 6-day moving average carcass weight dropped to 214.86#. That is -0.26# yr/yr. Index hogs also declined in weight and they are now 212.94#. Packer hogs are +3.64# heavier than the non-packer hogs. Yesterday packer hogs were down -3/4# and non-packer hogs shed 2/3#. These declining weights are consistent with the data seemingly saying that around 300K head of hogs have been pulled forward.

Now that I have the morning report and it seems to confirm that hogs have been pulled forward rather than the H&P report being too low, I will try to buy a couple of MMM pigs limit down. I would have made the purchase if I would have placed the order earlier, but I needed the 201 report to confirm what I thought was happening relative to hogs being pulled forward.

The 16.23 premium the MMMs are carrying to the component seems to be a big "Gap" for packers to close with higher bids.

Best wishes,

Doc

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