4/8/19 was up +0.06 and the model projects the component on yesterday's kill will be up between +0.20 and +0.50. It appear that packers still have a mild inventory of more expensive hogs that will be supportive of the component as packers clear them out.
Yesterday packers purchased 124.5% of the daily moving average of daily purchases of total hogs and 95.3% on the Index hogs. The kill rate since 3/1/19 is running higher than projected from the H&P Report. Either hogs are being pulled forward or else there were more hogs than the USDA estimated. At this point I think hogs are being pulled forward to the tune of more than 300K since 3/1/19. If it turns out that there were that many more than the USDA estimated, packers will have trouble selling the pork if China does not come to the rescue.