The CME Lean Hog Index component on the kill for -

4/4/19 was up +0.22 to 78.64. The JJJs settled premium to the component by +0.39. For all practical purposes there is NO "GAP". So traders are saying packers will be bidding steady for the next six-days including yesterday (4/5/19). I am doubtful that will happen. While it is true that cutouts were a little weak on Friday, it is also true that the kill since 3/1/19 is running higher than projected from the last H&P report. If this higher than projected kill represents hogs being pulled forward, then we will see the Index move up enough to push the JJJs higher. I am not very bullish because it is possible that the USDA mis-counted the 180# and up category of hogs.

The six-day moving average carcass weight was steady at 213.51#. That is +0.13# yr/yr. Index hogs were lighter at 213.11#. Packer hogs were heavier than the non=packer hogs by +3.87#. If hogs have been pulled forward, it may turn out that it was the Index hogs that were pulled forward.

Best wishes,