4/3/19 was only up +0.32 to 78.41. The JJJs are now trading premium to the component by +1.14. The model calculates that it will take an average daily gain of +0.17 to close the "Gap". The rate at which packers have been escalating their bids seems to be slowing so there may not be a lot more up-move to the JJJs but I am going to hold some for cash settlement anyway along with some of the deferred contracts.
The 6-day moving average carcass weight firmed to 215.19#. That is +0.36# yr/yr. This seems to indicate that producers are quite current in their shipments. Producers of Index hogs may be especially current because the average carcass weight is only 213.11# on the index hogs. I have felt for sometime that hogs have been pulled forward a bit and it may be especially the Index hogs that have been pulled forward. Packers have expanded their production and they are now shipping nearly 40% of the daily kill. That is up from about 33% one year ago.