3/27/19 was up +1.62 and the model projects the component on the 3/27/19 kill will be up between 1.50 and +1.80. I have not been looking over the afternoon reports and calculating an afternoon Purchase Index but with the weakness shown by the hog futures along with the volatility we have seen lately, I started wondering if I could get an early clue about what packers were doing today (3/27/19). It appears that packers were still buying hogs rather aggressively today. The producers of Index hogs were fairly willing sellers with 89.5% of the moving average daily purchases booked by the time the afternoon report was made. Packers did not do quite as well with total hogs - 77.6%.

I think there is a good chance that the early weakness in the deferred contracts that we saw on Wednesday was a technical/emotional mistake that should not have happened. It was partially corrected near the close and my feeling is that it will probably be totally corrected by the end of trading on Thursday. Actually I am expecting hog futures to punch higher by the end of trading on Thursday. At this point I am comfortable with my decision to pile a couple more QQQs onto my boat early in the day when they were beaten down.
If the final Purchase Index is higher in the morning, I may try to add more long deferreds in the morning.

Best wishes,

Doc