11-7-14 was down $0.08 and the model projects that the CME Lean Hog Index component on the 11-7-14 kill will shed something like -0.30 to -0.60. At any rate, the down trend is still intact. It would appear that packers still have a fair inventory of cheaper hogs already purchased so I expect the component to be down for at least a couple more days. Sometimes packers dish out surprises and quickly begin bidding higher.

On Friday the number of hogs they had scheduled was on the weak side - down 167K from the same day last week and down 8.46% from the same day last year. The morning reports show that they made a solid purchase on Friday of 106.7% of the moving average daily purchases. If they have a light kill tomorrow because of Veterans' Day, then the scheduled number may not be too significant.

There is a good chance that the spreads I have will give me the cover I need to overcome my sin of carrying short ZZZs over the weekend.

Best wishes,

dhm