3/26/19 was up 1.99 to 70.48. The JJJs are now trading premium to the component by +9.95. The model calculates that the component will need to gain an average of +0.76 per day to close the "Gap". It has gained an average of +1.93 per day over the past 7-days. If it were to continue to gain at that rate, the JJJs would go to cash settlement at 94.64.

The 6-day moving average carcass weight firmed to 215.12#. That is +0.37# yr/yr. Index hogs were a bit lighter at 213.20. These high bids may be pulling index hogs forward a bit. Packer hogs are +4.46# heavier than the non-packer hogs. The percentage of packer hogs in the kill mix is higher than one year ago by a couple of percentage points and it seems to be continuing to climb. Packers know the hog market a lot better than I and their actions seem to say, "Packers are bullish hogs!"

The data seems to be friendly toward the hog market but nearly all deferred contracts are down. Why? I beats me. Maybe it is a technical/emotional correction or maybe something is happening that is not showing up in the data yet. Today I have flipped a few calendar spreads and am HODLing the deferred long futures. It looks like my margin will suffer today!!

Best wishes,

Doc