3/22/19 was up +3.05 and that is WAY MORE than the model projected. The "Gap" has now closed to 12.45 with the JJJs being premium to the component. Over the past five days the component has gained an average of 1.86 per day. If it continues to surge at that rate the JJJs will go to cash settlement at 93.28. I doubt that we will see this bull market continue that powerfully.. The model calculates that the component will need to jump +0.86 per day to close the "Gap". Looking at the jump of 3.05 in the component today suggests to me that a gain of 0.86 per day may be possible so I bought a trio of JJJs today.

The 6-day moving average carcass weight firmed to 215.33#. That is +0.07# year over year. Index hogs were also a bit heavier at 213.50#. Packers continue to ship a larger-than-usual percentage of the kill and the hogs they are shipping are heavier than the non-packer hogs by +4.50#.

I am still long the deferred contracts and some of them burned me today. As Long Bear so often said, "In the hog market you can always expect the unexpected." Today the unexpected occurred. So I bought another Jun-20 when it dipped more than two points. Now I await "The Market" deciding if I made a mistake or not.

Best wishes,

Doc