the final Purchase Index for 3/20/19 will be late. My bias is that it will be up again because:

1. We are in a strong up-trend.

2. Demand seems to be growing as seen by escalating cutouts. Data may be showing that exports are strong enough to be contribute to this demand increase.
u
3. With increased offers by packers, the number of hogs p +urchased has been moderate to "Normal" lately suggesting that producers are not falling over each other to sell.

4. The data since 12/1/18 seems to be saying that hogs have been pulled forward mildly.

5. Mildly declining carcass weights are suggest producers are keeping current may be confirming that hogs have been pulled forward.

6. Historically the price of hogs tends to go up between New Years Day and Independence Day - surely not straight-up but with dips and rallies and today we may see a dip - - - or another rally.

7. It appears we have posted the "Trough" for this Hog Cycle and we are now in the chase looking for the next "Crest".

We may get further guidance in a couple of weeks when the next H & P report is released.

Best wishes,

dhm

PS: I AM STILL HODLing THE DEFERRED CONTRACTS.