3/19/19 was, as I was concerned might be the case, more than the model projected. It was up +1.54 to 59.98. Packers are throwing the bucks out there but it is not bringing in very large numbers of hogs. And all the while the cutouts keep moving up giving packers the elbow room to keep sweetening their offers. I don't know where all the demand is coming from, but it is really good news for the producers who had a very bad late summer and fall last year.

The six-day moving average carcass weight firmed to 214.77 but that is below where we were a month ago suggesting that producers are very current in their shipments. That is +0.30# year/year. Index hogs were steady at 213.30#. Packer hogs are heavier than non-packer hogs by +4.88#. Packers are still shipping a higher percentage of the kill mix than they were one-year ago. I continue to believe that packers have a better pulse on the hog market than the rest of us and they may be saying, "Demand is strong so we will expand the number of hogs we are producing and finish to heavier weights to get more pork to meet the rising demand."

HODLing could get to be mighty boring and I might be tempted to sell some if I were not keeping busy loading and off-loading calendar spreads from my boat. The data seems to be saying quite clearly, "Now is not the time to be selling lean hog futures!"

The March wash-out did in fact come quite early this year and it was not really severe but it was severe enough tho give me a heart-burn or two while I was thinking higher rather than lower.

Best wishes,

Doc