3/19/19 was up +1.63 and the model projects the component on yesterday's kill will jump between +1.05 and +1.35. Lately the model has been under-estimating the strength the component will make on its daily moves upward. That may be the case again today. The JJJs settled premium to the component by +12.39. Over the last seven days the component has moved up an average of 0.95 per day and there are no signs of a weakness in packers' bids so "The Market" may know what it is doing. I am not about to get sort the JJJJs.

With their higher bids, packers purchased 83.8% of the moving average purchases of total hogs ad 91.1% on the index hogs. It seems to me that a jump in packers' bids should have brought in more hogs than that.

The six -day moving average carcass weight may be declining suggesting that producers are very current in their shipments. One month ago the 6-day moving average carcass weight was 215.61. Yesterday it had eased to 214.50#. So far this week the kill has fallen to the same level as one year ago. The data has been telling me that hogs have been being pulled forward a bit. Now we may be seeing the impact of hogs having been pulled forward.

Still long the deferred contracts and HODLing. The data may be saying, "Now is not the time to be selling lean hog futures!"

Best wishes,

dhm