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'Tis a puzzlement, Dewey. With the Chinese - -

importing a large amount of American pork, why are they trying to smuggle pork into the U.S. from China? I think I read someplace that it is difficult to move pork from certain areas in China and some areas have surpluses while other places are experiencing shortages. Let's hope it was a pork rich area looking for a market and not a sabotage attempt. If it is sabotage, it might succeed next time.

Cutouts made a huge jump today. I'm trading plenty of spreads but I am HODLing the deferred outrights. Actually I added a handful of MMM-20s today. I don't know whether or not I have the sticktuitiveness to hold for 1.20 and I have no idea when one would expect the 1.20 to show up. It does appear that we are now in the chase looking for the next "Hog Cycle " "Crest". The last one was a rather weak one at 92.84 posted on 7/12/17. If we get a four to five year Hog Cycle this time we could see the next "Crest" sometime between July of 2021 and July of 2022. If American producers gear up to produce large exports to China and China gets converted to large, more bio-secure facilities, the next "Trough" may be sometime after 2022 and it could be really brutal.

Everything changes if the ASF virus shows up on American soil!

Best wishes,

dhm

Messages In This Thread

The CME Lean Hog Index component on the kill for -
Re: The CME Lean Hog Index component on the kill f
'Tis a puzzlement, Dewey. With the Chinese - -
Hogs by Dennis Smith