have been very busy and I am just now getting around to answering your post. The U.S. hog producers have expanded and expanded to the point that they are producing about 25% more pork than the domestic market wants to absorb at a decent price so it is aiming at the export market. If the ASF virus hits North America, in all probability many nations would halt the importation of American pork so the domestic market would be flooded with pork and the price would plummet big time.

Even though the ASF virus does not affect humans, infected animals need to be destroyed to keep the virus out of the food chain and to reduce the possibility of additional spreading. If I understand it correctly, a lot of the back yard producers in China are liquidating their hogs fearing they might become infected. This liquidation has been ballooning up the supply of pork in China and greatly depressing prices in some areas. As this liquidation comes to an end and the effects of this lost production begins to be felt, China may become very, very short of pork. In fact the export data may be suggesting the shortage is beginning to show up.

I am quite bullish on hogs right now but the risk of being long if the ASF virus hits the U.S. of A. is enormous!.

Best wishes,

dhm