MURICO.com Forum

The final Purchase Index for - - -

3/14/19 was UP, ACTUALLY, WAY, WAY UP by +1.51 and the model projects the component on yesterday's kill will soar between +0.80 and +1.10. A lot of "Gap" gets closed with gains like that. But the JJJs keep moving up so the "Gap" remains very wide at +12.69 with the JJJs premium to the component. With a "Gap" like that, I should probably be short the JJJs but I don't think I will try that again quite yet. I didn't like what happened the last time i tried it.

With their much higher bids, packers purchased 98.6% of the daily moving average of total hogs and 98.4/% on the Index hogs. Producers are not being over-eager to sell but seem to be systematically moving them to market as they finish. Actually my numbers suggest that 200K or so hogs have been pulled forward. It seems to now be totally confirmed that ITZ's March wash-out came early this year.

With us being in the chase for the Next Hog Cycle crest, I decided to get long the June-20s and July-20s. I had my orders working before the opening and got a very good fill on the Jun-20s.

Still HODLing the deferred contracts but the calendar spreads are coming and going so fast it is keeping my head spinning again today.

Best wishes,

Doc