3/12/19 WAS UP +0.71 TO 53.47. It appears the JJJs will settle premium to the component by about ten points. That is a very large "Gap" for this time of the year this close to expiration. Maybe "The Market" knows what it is doing - - - or maybe it has the JJJs mis-priced!! Sometimes my model gives me some guidance on the front month as we go toward cash settlement but no guidance this time on the JJJs. At least not yet.

The six-day moving average carcass weight eased to 214.72#. That is +0.02# yr/yr. Index hogs were also a bit lighter at 212.74#. Packer hogs are heavier than the non-packer hogs by +4.61#. Packers are shipping a higher than usual percentage of the kill mix at 38.0%. One year ago that percentage was 33.216%. That strikes me as being quite a bit of packer expansion.

Today I was very busy with the calendar spreads coming and going. It isn't often that I make a round trip calendar spread trade in one day. Often they hang around for weeks or even months but today a bunch came and went the same day. It was especially the N/Qs that were coming and going.

Best wishes,

dhm
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