3/11/19 was up +0.39 and the model projects the component on yesterday's kill will be up between+0.20 and +0.50. An up-trend seems to be firmly in place now and it will most likely continue until after the Independence day holiday. The JJJs are trading premium to the component by +10.88 and the NNNs are +29.31. Traders have high expectations for a strong rally.
But it won't be straight up. It never is and that's what keeps the makers of Tums in business!
Packers only made a fair purchase yesterday at 85.5% of the moving average purchases of total hogs and 85.4% on the index hogs. In reviewing the kill since 12/1/18, the numbers are suggesting to me that between 150K and 250K of hogs have been pulled forward. The fact that the six-day moving average carcass weight is slightly heavier than one year ago probably represents a strategic decision on the part of packers to kill heavier hogs for increased efficiency.
Still HODLing deferred hog contracts. I did run profits on a long JJJ-20 to the bank this morning and piled another QQQ pig on when it dipped this morning.