The CME Lean Hog Index component on the kill for -

3/8/19 was UP +0.40 TO 52.14. The JJJs are now trading premium to component by +10.65. One year ago the premium was only +1.00. What a difference one year can make.

The six-day moving average carcass weight firmed to 215.45. That is only +0.24# yr/yr. This makes me think producers are quite current in their shipments. Actually, I think hogs have been pulled forward a bit. Index hogs are 213.61# and that was down a little Packer hogs were +4.98# heavier than the non-packer hogs and the percentage of packer hogs in the kill mix is moving up toward 40%!!ll

Last week I pointed out that the "Trough" to this hog cycle was hit last September and we are now in the chase for the next "Peak". Generally it takes a year or two and sometimes more to get from the "Trough" to the "Peak". This makes me think producers are in for some smooth sailing for a while now.

I was really wrong last week in thinking it would be all right to start thinking about getting short the JJJs to go to cash settlement. And the cattle/hog spread is collapsing and I didn't get a fill on my order to sell one at 45.775 but it got very, very close. "Close" does not put money in the bank!! But HODLing the deferred contracts is helping today. I can hear Dewey smiling with me!!

Best wishes,


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The CME Lean Hog Index component on the kill for -