The CME Lean Hog Index component on the kill for -

3/1/19 was up +0.12 to 51.98. The cutouts have been up an average of 1.12 per day for the past three days. This is beginning to appear that the downtrend in hog prices may be ending. It is not clear how robust the trend reversal will be but "The Market" has bought into the idea that a rally is underway having run the JJJs up premium to the component by +5.35 at settlement. I believe the key to a strong rally prices is going to be export demand because production may be in excess of domestic demand. The dynamics seem to be favorable for strong exports to China if we can work through this trade war some way.

The 6-day moving average carcass weight moved up to 215.43#. That is only +0.23# year over year. This makes me think that producers are quite current in their shipments. Index hogs were steady at 213.82#. Packers are continuing to finish their hogs to heavier weight being +3.73# heavier than the non-packer hogs. On the day, packer hogs were +1/3# and non-packer hogs were -1/4#. I piled a couple more long NNNs onto my boat and am looking for a dip to add a couple of JJJ-20s.

Best wishes,