The CME Lean Hog Index component on the kill for -

2/27/18 dipped by -0.49 to 52.39. The JJJs settled premium to the component by +2.93. "The Market" seems to think that packers will be bidding higher by 4/12/19. For that to happen increased demand is going to be needed or else supply needs to drop. So far this week the kill is trailing the same week last year by -2.88% so the high kill for the last few weeks may have been from the producers pulling hogs forward a bit. Or it could be that the low kill this week is weather related and hogs are being backed-up even more.

The six-day moving average carcass weight formed to 214.98#. That is +0.20# year over year. Packer hogs are running +3.43# heavier than the non-packer hogs. Index hogs were also a bit heavier at 213.39#. Packer hogs were a bit heavier today while the non-packer hogs were a bit lighter.

The data is not giving us a very clear picture of what is happening to the supply of hogs. Historically there is a very strong tendency for the supply of hogs to generally decline from January to July. The lower kill this week would be consistent with that tendency.

Best wishes,

D. H.