with you, ITz. For the last 8-years the average M/N spread during the six-months leading up to expiration has been 0.033. The average spread at expiration has been -1.502 with a high of +4.46 posted in 2013 and a low of -11.7 posted in 2014. On this date the average spread has been +0.134 and the high was +1.55 posted in 2011 and the previous low was -0.75 posted in 2018. Yesterday it settled at -2.925 and that is just way lower than it has ever been on this date in the last 8-years.
But keep in mind that it drifted all the way down to -11.7 at expiration in 2014.
What is it going to do this year?
That all depends.
If producers liquidate a bunch of hogs now and China comes into the market in a big way during May, the spread could rally to very strong positive numbers like maybe +3 or +4. If China is still liquidating the back yard producers by then and the trade war is still on, then the bottom could be very problematic. After all we saw a -11.70 expiration in 2014..
I find I have scaled into far too many of the long M/N spreads. On Tuesday I was able to get one off my boat at a profit and another yesterday. In Dewey's words, "It may be a long slog getting the rest of the off!"