The final Purchase Index for - - -

2/19/19 was down -0.18 and the model projects the component on yesterday's kill will skid between -0.20 and -0.50. The down trend is still intact and in all likelihood we are going to have at least two more down days in the index. There was a glimmer of hope in some of the markets suggesting that the downtrend may be slowing. But it is the declining cutouts that is worrisome for the producers. Packers must sell the product at a profit! Otherwise they get mighty grouchy. Cutouts dropped another -1.67 yesterday.

Packers purchased 86.5% on the total hogs and 93.8% on the index hogs. So far this week the kill is coming in huge: +9.37%. For several weeks the kill has been above projection from the last H&P report and carcass weights are still quite a bit above last year.

Best wishes,