2/18/19 was down -0.59 and the model projects that the component on yesterday's kill will drop between -0.35 and -0.65. There is quite a strong downtrend going here and the drop in cutouts yesterday may be signaling it has a ways to go.
The JJJs are trading premium to the component by +2.18.
It is no fun being long hogs with all the pork coming to market and demand not interested in carrying it off. Fortunately I am also short almost as many with spreads as I am long so I will survive but I may not thrive. I bought two GGG 20s this morning. There is a good chance that low prices will be cured by then.