but don't get to comfortable with that thought. Last year I believe the Dec hogs spent the month of Oct going up and this year it spent the month of Oct going down. If my memory is correct, the trading range for Dec hogs from Oct to mid Nov last year was 86.00-92.00 and then decided to extend the downside another $5 the end of Nov into expiration. With what we've seen this year for expiring contracts, the percentage favorite calls for an expiration rally. The last 10 years 2003 and 2013 were the only years Dec spent in a solid 3 week expiration downdraft. All other years favor the low being in place between Nov 5th-Nov 20th and then trading the typical $5 trading range of undecided sideways which has already been put into place between 86.00-90.65. Dec hogs could be stuck in this $5 mud.

We can make money doing that but be cautious with a break of 90.65 as long as this lower range has traded the easy guess is down and there are probably sufficient stops to blow to move it quickly to 92.00. That is the point where packers can surprisingly decide they need to bid higher after the bears have added new shorts only to be blown out when more surprises show up. As you know SURPRISES is what makes the market go back and forth. The hog market uses the surprises to create the Addictive $10 range. It trades the $5 range when it doesn't know what to do OR it is setting the stage, building the trap, for next psych trade direction that comes as a surprise. I could be hallucinating but I don't think down is in any way a surprise for hog market direction the 7th of Nov, especially since cash is in strong 3-4 week decline which is also the usual happening. Maybe not for the Dec contract but I think there's another $10 upside surprise just waiting rob those party goers at this BEAR PARTY.