The CME Lean Hog Index component on the kill for -

2/13/19 was down -0.46 to 55.32 and the USDA was very, very late in posting the numbers so could enter them in my model to calculate the change. Supposedly it was late because of "Packer Submission" problems. The GGGs settled discount to the component by -0.17. The model projects the cash settlement index for the GGGs will be 54.63 with a range of 54.13 to 55.13. I was resigned to not having any GGGs to take to cash settlement but when the Purchase Index come out so low this morning, the model gave me the green light to get short. I was only able to sell one. I had several other orders working but the market did not go there. I don't expect this to be a very profitable trade but I am driven by the challenge of being right.

The 6-day moving average carcass weight was steady at 215.09#. That is +.099# yr/yr. Index hogs were down a bit at 214.04#. Packers are continuing to ship heavier hogs than the non-packers by +2.60#. Packer hogs were actually +1/4#.

It was a bit troubling to see the cutouts down 1.24 today. I expect this to make the packers a bit grumpy and I am expecting that they took it out on the producers when they were buying hogs on Wednesday. I am hopeful that we get the morning reports in time to post the final Purchase Index before the market opens.

Best wishes,