2/8/19 was , surprisingly, up +0.32 and the model projects the component will change in the range of unchanged to down -0.30. Packers still have an adequate number of cheaper hogs purchased to keep the component under a little downward pressure. The GGGs are now trading discount to the component by -1.43 telling us that "The Market" is expecting a little more weakness between now and when the GGGs go to cash settlement on 2/14/19.

With their lower bids, packers purchased 121.7% of the moving average daily purchases of total hogs and 138.9% on the Index hogs. Purchasing large numbers on Friday and Saturday seems to be standard operating procedure for packers.

I am still long summer futures and wrong. The firm Purchase Index may be a hint that we are near the trough for this wave down. Generally the Purchase Index will reverse on a trend before the CME Lean Hog index. Historically there is a strong tendency for the Index to go up until after the Independence Day holiday.

Best wishes,

dhm