Whoa!! What in the world is going on with - -

packers buying hogs??

The USDA reports have been coming in late. When I plugged the data into my model, the Purchase Index dropped -1.12 on Monday's purchases only to jump by +1.71 on Tuesday's purchases. Seemingly the report that was available early in the day on Tuesday led to a sharp decline of hog futures across the board. Then the report for Tuesday's purchases finally came in and the losses were trimmed significantly by the time the market closed.

Wednesday's kill was somewhat lower.

Is the cold weather across the mid-west forcing packers to bid higher to get producers to ship hogs?

Or is the number of available hogs drying up?

The six-day moving average carcass weights are holding steady. Does this mean hogs are being marketed at just about the rate they are finishing? If so, are there fewer hogs now being finished or are producers just not able/willing to ship in the cold weather?? Or is the cold weather slowing down finishing??

The 6-day moving average carcass weight over the next week may give us a clue.

In the words of ITZ, "Hog traders, Brace yourselves!!"

Half of us are going to be right and half of us are going to be wrong.

Perhaps it depends on who has the "Lucky" rabbits foot - - - but remember this, the rabbits foot didn't save the bunny!

Best wishes,