1/11/19 was UP +0.55 and the GGGs settled premium to the component by +4.40. With the GGGs being down and the component up, we got a lot of "Gap" closing today. There are 23-trading days until we go to cash settlement. The model shows that it will take an average move-up of 0.19/day to close that "Gap". In the last eight-days the component has been up an average of +0.58/day.
On average over the last 11-years from this date until cash settlement the Index has gained +1.62. Over the past four-years it has gained an average of 8.04 per year. The most it has gained over the past 11-years was 12.39 in 2017. In 2015 it lost -14.29. ITZ had it right when he said, "Brace yourself!"
The six-day moving average carcass weight moved up to 216.40#. That is +1.47# yr/yr. Packer hogs are heavier than non-packer hogs by +3.28#. The percentage of packer hogs in the kill mix moved up to 37.21% on Friday. Either packers are bullish hogs or else they are wanting to take control of hog production from conception to pork chops in the retailer's cases!
Two new cases of ASF were identified in China over the weekend. Their problem is not over and I suppose their problem is our problem now that we are in somewhat of a global economy.