What to Expect?
Today was the first day of the Goldman Roll but you could not see it impact the market. Volume of trade will be higher over the next several sessions. Today’s volume exceeded 80,000 compared to about 35,000 on Monday. Hogs remain a sleepy eyed market in the face of solid evidence that disease is threatening over half of the world’s pig population. The situation is threatening to go regional if it spreads to Taiwan. I’m hearing of disease problems in Vietnam, ASF remains at problem in wild hogs in Belgium and I’m hearing of breeding problems in some U.S. operations. Russia and Ukraine continue to battle ASF. Overall, it appears that global pork production is headed lower to possibly sharply lower. Asia can’t go without pork. U.S. exports will likely surge upward during the months ahead. The seasonal in the summer hogs should be higher into March. Currently the market is probing the Dec lows. We don’t expect any downside follow though from current levels.
Product is so cheap that we consider the downside potential to cutout, cash and futures rather limited. Bellies are tight. Hams and loins are trading at long term if not historically low prices. The rumor mill is spinning the idea that China will drop their tariff on U.S. pork. This is something we’ve been expecting. A higher yen and peso is also a supportive feature. I’m trying to think of bearish fundamentals and other than record large production I really can’t think of anything else bearish.
DH, above is some of what I read today! There seemed to be all kinds of rumors today but the hogs did not react, they went down! I keep thinking every day this is it - everyone will be buying hogs and every day seems to be another Ho-Hum event. Maybe tomorrow will be the day! The packers seem to be increasing their price every day! I guess I could say "if they don't go down tomorrow they will go up"!!
Have a good evening