shut down or some other unspecified event, the final purchase index will be late due to no USDA report yet this morning. The rate of decline in the index seems to be slowing so the seasonal downtrend to the index may be nearing an end. The component on the 12/31/18 kill was down -0.37 at 52.81. With the GGGs trading premium to the component by 9.49, "The Market is planning on a significant rally in the index. On average over the past 11-years from this date until the GGGs go to cash settlement, the index has gained 2.89. In 2017 it gained 17.84 and in 2015 it lost -16.30. During the past four-years it has gained an average of 12.02.
The 200-day moving average for the index is 64.29. This means that the component is currently -9.16 below the 200-day moving average. With that much current weakness in the index, my bias is to think that we will not see a drop of anything close to the -16.30 drop seen in 2015. I suppose there could be a drop, but I think it would be very, very small.
There is probably an ASF premium built into the GGGs and if it comes to fruition, the index could move up enough to push the GGGs even higher. That is the way I am trading this market being long the GGGs as well as the summer futures.
Ka!! Ching!! Ka!! Ching!! Just took profits on a long GGG and a long MMM and will now wait for a dip to reload my boat. Yesterday I too profits on a short June Cattle/Hog spread and am now looking to sell again at 35.90. Thanks, ITZ for getting me onto the short June Cattle/Hog a few years ago. It has treated me well.