Due to the government shut-down, there will be -

no final purchase index today! Whatever change we might have seen in the index today would have little bearing on where the index will be when the futures will be going to cash settlement. The GGGs settled premium to the component by +7.65. On average over the past 11-years,from this date until the GGGs go to cash settlement the index has only gained 2.33. The most it has gained was 17.13 in 2017 and the most it has lost was -21.92 in 2015. In the last three years it gained an average of 11.89 per year. This tells us that the index can give us a mighty will ride from now until the GGGs go to cash settlement.

I for one don't know what will happen -

But -

My bias is that the kill rate will back off a little, the ASF will have a negative impact on world pork supplies and export demand for U.S. pork will be sufficient to move the index up enough to close the "Gap" and push the GGGs up a bit as well as the summer futures so I am now long a few GGGs as well as the summer futures and a fair-sized boat load of all the spreads. The pre-opening is saying that I am on the right side of the market for today. "The Market" may be singing a different song when we get the early close for today.

Best wishes,