The final Purchase Index for - - -

12/17/18 was d0wn -0.64 and the model projects that the component on yesterday's kill will drop between -0.25 and -0.55. Seasonally there is a fairly strong tendency for the component to show a small amount of strength about the time that the ZZZs go to cash settlement as the packers put the finishing touches on the kill they need to fill the retailers cases for the holiday demand surge then they take the index down until after New Years Day. This weakness in the component has a tendency to pull the futures across the board down with it even though it has very little bearing on the price of hogs come summer. Perhaps if I am patient and wait for the bottom of the holiday doldrums to hit, I can then pile a few more summer futures on my boat and be handsomely rewarded for my patience.

Packers purchased 95.5% of the moving average daily purchases of total hogs and 89.7% of the index hogs. Even though packers eased their bids, they still made adequate purchases yesterday.

Best wishes,


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