12/11/18 was down -0.16 and the model projects the component on yesterday's kill will change between +0.15 and -0.15 and that is to say nearly unchanged. I keep watching (hoping) for a mild pre-holiday bounce in the index but it may not come this year. It is usually good for a couple of points. The ZZZs are trading discount to the component by -0.91.,

Packers purchased 86.9% of the moving daily average of total purchases and 96.6% on the index hogs.

My decision to get long the summer futures when it appeared the Hog Cycle low was hit on 9/3/18, has turned out to be a good decision. There is a good chance that the ASF virus problem is going to inflict more damage to the world's pork supply so I am continuing to hold long some summer futures and sell rallies and buy dips. This morning I was able to buy-back a QQQ pig at 83.55. I am a bit fearful that we could get a fairly strong sell-off in the summer futures so I am a bit cautious in loading my boat. Sometimes a little caution is better than a lot of regret.

I am also watching the June cattle/hog spread, ITZ, but I trade it as a spread. If it gets to the 36 level, I will have to sell. I was tempted to buy at 29 but couldn't quite muster the courage to pull the trigger.

Best wishes,

Doc