12/10/18 was down -0.79 and the model projects the component on yesterday's kill will dip between -0.25 and -0.55. "The Market" is saying this year we are not going to get the oft seen mid-December bounce in the Index. Sometimes we don't when the supply of hogs is high and that may be the case this year.
Yesterday packers purchased 93.9% of the moving average daily purchases of total hogs and 89.3% on the index hogs. The big purchase Friday/Saturday may have filled their needs for the holiday surge.
Today I will start buying the Q/V spread at 14.90 and selling it at 15.45. That is an unusually high level to be buying but that seems to be where the market wants to play the game and I have to play where the market wants to play. The more usual level this time of the year is in the 11 to 12 range.