11/4/14 kill was down -0.55 to 88.45. The weakness in the ZZZs had dropped them to a discount of 1.60 to the component but they are coming back a little now. I find it most interesting at the effectiveness with which the model projects the change to the CME index component.

The six-day moving average carcass weight is now down to 215.22# with both packer and non-packer hogs being lighter. It appears that everyone is trying to get current in their shipments. The yr/yr weight is now down to a +3.68. On 7/30 it was +10.79#. That represents a lot of liquidation of heavies - - - probably more than 500K.

I was not expecting this much weakness in the hog market. I was expecting some weak back in mid-October so I bought a couple of Dec 92/90 bear put spreads but there is more weakness than I was expecting.

Best wishes,

dhm